Private investment will expand at a greater degree in line with the recovery in domestic demands and merchandise exports as well as the greater amount of project investments in the targeted industries within EEC area, which most of them have got approval before the onset of COVID-19 crisis. Regarding external sector, ttb analytics estimates that the 2022 merchandise export value in US dollar term will increase by 4.5% due to the global economic recovery, as shown by the IMF’s global goods and services trade growth forecast being at 6%, and positive spillover from The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) enforced on 1st January 2022. Thailand’s export products to RCEP membership, accounting for more than 50% of total Thai exports, would receive import tariff cuts to zero% which would be great benefits for Thai exporters in the term of greater opportunity to expand export markets. Moreover, against the backdrop of COVID-19 outbreak situation improvement in several countries, this has led to the relaxation of international travelling restriction measures and the inbound tourists are accordingly expected to recover in the second half of the year, making the estimated inbound tourist figure for 2022 to be 7.5 million persons. Regarding financial market, the Monetary policy committee would maintain the policy rate at 0.5% throughout the year to accommodate Thailand’s economic recovery under high uncertainty in pandemic variant outbreak and inflation dynamic. With respect to inflation, price pressure is expected to be high in the former half of the year due to rising global petroleum costs and world commodity prices, but it will gradually decline in the latter half. Despite this, Thailand’s heading inflation in 2022 is forecasted to remain within the BOT’s targeted range. According to Thai baht, it is projected to face volatility and a depreciation trend due to US dollar’s appreciation as a result of Fed’ tightening monetary policy stance. ttb analytics thus projects Thai baht to move between 32.5 to 34.0 baht per dollar in 2022. Banking Industry Banking Industry in 2021 Commercial banks had stronger growth from 2020 as loan expansion accelerated from business recoveries after the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, credit expanded at a faster pace than deposits. This caused loan-to-deposit ratio to increase to 108.8% from 106.9% in 2020. As a result, liquidity in Thai banking system at year-end stood at THB 4.2 trillion, dropping from THB 4.4 trillion from the same period last year. Total assets of domestically registered commercial banks rose 4.8% to THB 20.8 trillion. Commercial banks’ total loans in 2021, stood at THB 15.1 trillion, expanding by 6.5% from 2020. Key drivers were from large corporate loan growth which expanded at 12.8%, mostly in manufacturing and commerce due to business expansions following global demands. Small and Medium Enterprises’ (SME) loan extended due to business recoveries after the COVID-19 pandemic by 2.1%. Consumer loans grew at slower rates at 3.7% due to smaller growths in mortgage and hire purchase when compared to 2020. Credit card loan and personal loans improved from last year following greater economic activities. 62 TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited
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